The Bank of Ghana is expected to cut the policy rate further by 150 basis points to 14%.
According to IC Research, it estimated real policy rate now stands at 12.2% with the latest disinflation and a nominal policy rate of 15.5%.
“While this signals vast scope for deeper cut, we believe the MPC will favour caution amidst the volatile geopolitical risk events, especially as energy prices surge and the US Dollar strengthens”.
“We thus expect the authorities to sustain the preference for double digit real policy rate with a rate-cut bias, pegging our anticipated cut in the policy rate at between 100 – 200bps [basis points], with a leaning towards 150bps cut to 14.0%”, it added.
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Ghana cut its policy rate to 15.5% in January 2026, from 18%.
This decision was aimed at stimulating economic growth and responding to declining inflation.
In taking the policy decision, the MPC acknowledged that macroeconomic conditions have improved significantly. This was supported by the tight monetary policy stance, fiscal consolidation, and significant build-up of reserves.
Inflation declined faster than anticipated, with expectations remaining well anchored, and growth strengthening.
